Reposted from Forbes.
Popular opinion maintains that fall is the best time to buy a home, and Realtor.com actually narrowed the very best timeframe to the period between September 29 and October 5. But is this really the best time for potential home buyers to pull the trigger and purchase a home?
It’s not a simple yes or no answer — the right decision may be more complicated than you think. These experts explain the different factors to consider.
These Experts Bet On Fall
Most of the experts I spoke with agree that spring is considered the peak or busiest time of year for home sales. According to Matt Vernon, head of consumer lending at Bank of America, that’s because more inventory and options are available, which makes this time of year more appealing to buyers. “However, this also means more competition, while fall, on the other hand, can be slower, with less competition and homes staying on the market for a bit longer, which also offers its advantages,” he says.
And thanks to recent reductions in mortgage rates, Vernon believes there will be increased activity in the housing market this fall. “Home inventory is on the rise, giving buyers more options, and rates are expected to continue dropping,” he explains, noting that lower rates can also mean more competition and potentially higher house prices.
Broker David Sokolowski of Coldwell Banker Warburg in New York City tells me fall is absolutely the best time to buy a home. He explains that the real estate market is cyclical and says the busiest seasons are spring and fall. “Activity in the summer and winter tends to die down as consumers are busy either traveling or occupied with the holidays,” Sokolowski says.
He admits that spring is the busier market. “Many buyers typically want to have time to settle in, enjoy their new backyards and pools, and host family and friends during the summer,” Sokolowski says. However, he notes these are not concerns for most buyers in the fall market.
Meanwhile, Sokolowski explains that most homeowners who decide to sell their properties in the latter half of the year tend to hold off on listing their properties until post Labor Day. “This creates an influx of new listings that come on the market in early September against a smaller pool of buyers than in the spring,” he says. And Sokolowski says this results in buyers having less competition and finding market conditions to be more favorable for them.
This view is shared by Nikki Beauchamp, associate broker at Sotheby’s International Realty in New York City. “In general, there may be more inventory that comes on after summer, and for those sellers or buyers who have children who are school aged, that cohort tends to want to be settled into a new home in time for the new school year,” she explains.
And Santiago Arana, principal at The Agency Los Angeles, also thinks that fall is generally an excellent time to buy. He notes that September and October have historically been strong real estate months for both buyers and sellers, as people are returning from vacation and kids are back in school. “Currently, several factors are at play: the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates is a positive step that signals improvement, and we may see further reductions in the near future, which could boost buyer confidence and drive sales numbers up,” Arana says.
Broker Andrea Saturno-Sanjana of Coldwell Banker Warburg in New York also thinks fall is a good time to sell. “Buyers who needed to move during the summer would have already done so — or they would have decided to stay put,” she says. “By these broad measures, it would seem autumn is the perfect time for a home search as there would be enough new inventory, enough lingering inventory with more negotiable sellers, and fewer buyers competing for those homes,” Saturno-Sanjana explains.
For Jon Grauman at The Agency Los Angeles, the upcoming election has created a sense of uncertainty and hesitation, and he tells me that he anticipates strong buying opportunities between now and the end of the year. “By most indicators, we are likely at the bottom of the J-curve, and brave buyers who act now could benefit before the market gains momentum in Q1 and Q2 of 2025,” Grauman explains. It should also be noted that mortgage payments are currently lower than rent in 22 of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, per Zillow data.
Amy Doyle, managing partner of The Agency Nashville and a colleague of Grauman, believes it’s certainly a good time to buy a home in her neck of the woods. “The pace of the market tends to slow down compared to the busy spring and summer seasons, leading to less competition among buyers,” she explains. And this slower pace results in a wider selection of homes – and potentially more negotiating power.
“Sellers who list in the fall are typically motivated, whether it’s to close before the holidays or for other personal reasons, which can sometimes result in more favorable terms for buyers,” Doyle explains. However, she notes that even though inventory may be higher, the market in her area remains competitive because it’s a popular region experiencing economic stability.
Down in South Florida, Brian Fairweather, managing director of The Agency Palm Beach, also thinks fall is the best time to buy in his market — but not because it’s less competitive. He says the South Florida market gets a lot of attention during fall and winter months. “Particularly in northern Palm Beach County, you will see agents pull inventory in the summer due to buyers and sellers being in other markets such as the Hamptons, Aspen, and Europe,” Fairweather says.
However, as people begin to return to South Florida area in the fall, Fairweather explains that there will be an increase in market activity. “Even though it is more competitive during this time of year, inventory will be at its peak, which gives buyers the most opportunities,” he says.
Consider The New Year
However, not all of these experts believe fall is the best time to buy a home. Broker Jennifer M. Roberts of Coldwell Banker Warburg in New York admits that the most active seasons are fall and spring. However, based on decades of experience, she tells me that the end of December and the beginning of January are actually the best times for buyers to purchase. “Sellers will be more negotiable if their home hasn’t sold by the end of the year,” she explains.
In addition, Roberts believes there’s much less competition from other buyers at this time. “Many buyers put buying a home on hold during the holidays, and in cold winter climates, buyers tend to hibernate and put off a search until warmer spring weather,” she says.” Roberts also notes that a good deal of homes come on the market in January. “This can be a win-win for buyers — less competition and a decent choice of homes,” she says.
In some markets in particular, the end of the year can definitely be a good time to buy a home. According to Michael Cannuscio, managing partner at The Agency Marblehead, works in the North Shore of Boston market. His inventory tends to increase after Labor Day when sellers and buyers return from the final summer vacations. “There is more inventory for a smaller buyer pool, and those buyers who can wait until after the holidays are at an advantage because buyers tend to drop out of the market around that time to focus on festivities, family, and friends,” Cannuscio says. So, if you can wait it out, he says the holidays are a great time since there are fewer active buyers to compete with.
Summertime, And the Buying Is Easy
Location plays a factor in making another season a good time to purchase a home as well. According to Saturno-Sanjana, summer may be the best season. “Data from moving companies indicate most people move homes during the summer between Memorial Day and Labor Day,” she says. These individuals may be waiting until their kids are out of school for the summer before picking up roots and moving. “Some residential markets with temperate climates and distinct seasons, such as New York City and Washington, DC, have autumn as their second busiest season,” Saturno-Sanjana says.
Other Factors To Consider
According to agent Steven Gottlieb at Coldwell Banker Warburg in New York, the ubiquitousness of the internet has somewhat flattened the various seasonal patterns that used to be a guide.
“The right home for you could be listed any time of year, and a serious buyer should get all of their documents lined up and ready to go and then enter the market, ready to get educated and ready to understand value and inventory,” he advises. “The real estate market is active year-round, and your next home could be listed at any time.” Sometimes, the key is to be patient. It’s just one of the lessons you can learn from ultra-wealthy buyers.
Saturno-Sanjana believes it’s important to look at more specific data regarding available homes and types of homes in certain neighborhoods. “In low inventory environments, competition among buyers remains keen all year round,” she says. “The absorption rate, or the months of supply of homes available for sale, for a specific neighborhood, or for a specific type of home, can point to how much competition actually exists.”
And there are other factors that buyers can consider to be more successful in obtaining a home. “In recent years, several of my buyers have found their ideal properties in the last quarter of the year, and in most cases the property had been on the market for over 90 days,” says Beauchamp. However, if your market doesn’t have a lot of inventory and those properties have multiple bids, she says you may need to adjust your requirements and desires accordingly.
“Many buyers are uninterested in homes that need any work, but it may be worth it to look at properties that need minor cosmetic updates, and that may create leverage for you as a buyer,” Beauchamp says.